How Will Americans Vote?

Part #3 of a series on the 2020 U.S. election crisis

In the previous articles, I discussed Trump’s motivations for winning a second term and the foreign help he’s getting. In this article, I’ll discuss what the American voters will do.

This series of articles was first published on October 2 and updated on October 17.

What do voters want?

After the Republican National Convention ended in late August 2020, POLITICO brought together a discussion panel of former campaign managers for Republican presidential candidates. They are familiar with how to interpret opinion polls and strategize around those on-the-ground realities to every possible degree. In that discussion, Jeff Roe predicted of the Republicans in the upcoming election, “We’re going to lose the popular vote.” Danny Diaz immediately echoed, “That’s a given,” as did Beth Hansen: “For sure.” Terry Sullivan added that, if voters turn out in high numbers, there is no way Trump can win reelection.

A poll conducted in the first several days of October found that Biden had a 16-point lead, and only 9 percent of potential voters said they might change their mind. That makes it appear mathematically impossible for Trump to win majority approval. He just doesn’t have it. The only question remaining is whether Biden’s supporters will actually cast their votes.

It does appear that voters are turning out in record numbers. Early voting has been…