Right. Military enlistment fluctuates a lot over the long-term, so if you want to see a 25% decrease, just pick a military branch and pick the time period that shows 25%! Like, since the Vietnam War? Or since 9/11?
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Then, once you get the number you want (e.g., 25%), if you are Nikki Haley, you can attribute a random reason for it! Maybe potential recruits fear "progressive ideologies"! Imagine if a potential recruit heard they'd have to serve alongside a trans person and said "nah, the military isn't for me"? That explains massive decline! (Or, as you note, a real reason: the military doesn't let many people enlist if they don't meet fitness requirements and other background checks.)