I agree, it is tragic that anyone (MAGA) is persuaded by anti-trans rhetoric and that anyone (liberals) might cave to it seeking an imagined compromise.

I don't know to what degree the anti-trans ads may have affected the election. There's at least one of every kind of voter, so somewhere out there is at least one person who didn't know whether to vote Trump or Harris, saw an anti-trans ad, and voted Trump because of it. I don't know how many such people there are. I haven't seen that data. I haven't been interested in the question, partly because there's an unpleasant discourse around it and partly because I don't know what I'd do with those numbers if I had them. I have a lot of theses about why transphobia is wrong, but I don't have a thesis about exactly how many people are persuaded by transphobia.